The Other 450 mm Shoe

The three companies openly pushing
for 450 mm wafers are working on a plan to subsidize the equipment
industry’s 450 mm development effort. The carrot will be
large, perhaps approaching a billion dollars when all is said and
done. Its increasingly clear that a combined stimulus package is
needed to prompt the equipment vendors to start 450 mm development,
a well-placed source in Austin said.

Intel Corp., Samsung Electronics
Co., and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. went public
Monday with their support for a transition to 450 mm wafers
beginning in 2012. Toshiba Corp. is keeping out of the spotlight,
but also is backing the transition. The companies said the 450 mm
effort will develop standards within the International Sematech Manufacturing
Initiative (ISMI), “as it plays a critical role in
coordinating industry efforts on 450 mm wafer supply, standards
setting and developing equipment test bed capabilities.”

ISMI, which has grown to include 16
corporate members, also is a focal point for environmental impact
studies, an increasingly important area for an industry awash in
chemicals. Look for ISMI to launch a significantly expanded
Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) initiative soon. With
the recent decision by ES&H guru Walter Worth to retire from
Sematech/ISMI, ISMI is searching for a person who can head up the
expanded ES&H initiative.

As the Sematech lithography,
interconnect, and metrology programs have largely shifted to
Albany, lured there by the Empire State’s 2:1 matching grants
for equipment and salaries, about 50 jobs have moved from Austin to
Albany in the past six months. New job creation for
Sematech’s core technology R&D also has largely been in
Albany. At the same time, ISMI has grown its staff in Austin. The
result, employment will be roughly balanced between Austin and
Albany, with about 200 people working in each location.

450 Green

In their
Monday announcement, Intel, Samsung and TSMC tied the
environmental and cost advantages of the 450 mm wafers together.
The press release said, “through more efficient use of
energy, water and other resources, bigger wafers can help diminish
overall use of resources per chip. For example, the conversion from
200 mm wafers to 300 mm wafers helped reduce aggregate emissions
per chip of air pollution, global warming gasses and water, and
further reduction is expected with a transition to 450 mm
wafers.”

Fewer fabs, each with
state-of-the-art environmental controls, would be seen as the Green
solution in a world increasingly concerned with water and energy
consumption. 

Mike Goldstein, Intel Corp., holds a 450 mm
wafer

So there you have it.

The carrot: subsidies to equipment
and materials companies which quickly get on the 450 mm train.

The stick: risk being left out of
the four biggest equipment buyers, who account for ~40% of capex
spending, and growing. When leading-edge production is considered,
the four proponents of 450 mm wafers account for more than half of
new equipment purchases.

And the sweetener? The 450 mm wafer
fabs are being positioned as the environmentally safer
solution.

The opposition to 450 mm wafers has
been intense and widespread. The opponents don’t buy the
basic argument that moving to the larger wafer size will be more
efficient this time around. Instead, they argue, take the billions
needed to develop 450 mm equipment and invest that money instead in
more automated 300 mm fabs, which are accessible to companies in
the middle tier.

Indeed, AMD, Chartered, IBM, Hynix,
Powerchip, STMicroelectronics, and UMC are large chip
manufacturers, but they are among the companies not quite large
enough to afford 450 mm fabs. What the anti-450 crowd argues is
that bigger fabs certainly help Intel and the other very large
companies as they compete with smaller rivals. That economic
survival battle alone nearly guarantees strong opposition to 450 mm
wafers. When combined with the economic pressures facing most
equipment suppliers now, the 300/450 teeter-totter hangs in the
balance.

The debate will continue to
intensify this year as the industry gathers at
Semicon West beginning July 14, and will be a major focus at
the ISMI
Symposium on Manufacturing Effectiveness/ISMI Manufacturing
Week, October 20‑23. Mark your calendars.