IC Insights Predicts Fast Industry Rebound at IMAPS Global Business Council

By now I know that most of you have
read the lead story coming out of the IMAPS Device
Packaging Conference (DPC) that was posted on Semiconductor.net
this past Thursday. Being your 3D IC blogger, and being at a
conference with three days of parallel sessions on 3D IC business
and technology, you probably expected I’d be pumping up 3D
IC, but that was not possible in light of Bill McClean’s
rah-rah economic recovery presentation to the IMAPS Global Business
Council. There were mainly packaging professionals in marketing,
sales and business development in attendance, but they clearly
understood that their market does not come back till the chip
market comes back and the chip market does not come back till the
overall economy rebounds.

Since this is my blog and not a news
story, I get to now give you my opinion. I am not at all sure that
the bottom is coming before July 2009 and good times will be here
for all of us by 2010 and 2011. What I can tell you is that I have
always believed that you must understand the past to understand the
future, as it unfolds, and IC Insights certainly has a vast
databank on past history. I thought I would post a few more of the
slides that Bill used to justify his position.

In the first slide shown below, we
can compare the 2001 recession to the one we are currently in. We
see that while the impact on the GDP is expected to be much more
severe (ZERO growth now vs 1.7% then), the impact on the semi
industry is expected to be halved (16% now vs 32% then) . If this
comes true, this is a good thing.

In the second slide, we see the data
from which Bill derives his predictions that the recovery will be
strong in 2010 and 2011. At least in the last three recessions
growth coming out of them has been 20 ±40% in the two
years following. Whenever the current one ends, you want to be
ready to supply because that’s when the money will be
made.

The next slide says the same thing
using a “pin wheel” slide to show how history does
repeat itself.

Lastly, the slide below shows the
projections for bellwether TSMC. I agree with the premise that if
things are turning around we will certainly see it at the
foundries. Bill’s numbers indicate that TSMC has in fact
already bottomed and we will see things rebounding as
second-quarter results are posted.

Whether you fully believe the timing
or not, you certainly must tip your hat to IC Insights for being
willing to put themselves out there with these predictions. Whether
they are right or wrong — time will tell!

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developments, stay linked to Perspectives From the Leading Edge,
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