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Photovoltaics: An Alternative Opinion
April 4, 2008
I just attended Semi’s two-day event, “Empowering the Silicon Revolution—The Past, Present, and Future of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Industry,” at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California. As I reported (see: Semi Event Blends Nostalgia with a Look to the Future), the opening keynote address was given by Arthur W. Zafiropoulo, the chairman, president, and CEO of Ultratech, San Jose, California, who reminisced about our industry’s beginning, and expressed strong opinions about its future. One thing I found interesting, was his refusal to factor in the possible effects of the photovoltaic (PV) boom that seems to be taking place.
I later corralled Art and asked him why he holds such a jaundiced view on the current interest in photovoltaics.
“From the investment side, I see PV as the next dotcom bust,” he said. “Remember, PVs are a niche market. While solar will be used it isn’t the ultimate energy solution. The energy solutions should be more focused on nuclear and fuel cells for automobiles.”
“But surely,” I argued, “solar has an important place.”
“Yes, and so do windmills, geothermal and others—they should all be used, but I think that the cost for PV today far exceeds the ROI. Once the government stops subsidizing, and it will soon, the interest will decline.”
Source: Ultratech
Art Zafiropoulo, Ultratech
When I commented that companies such as Applied Materials, which has gone into the PV area in full force, must see some value to it, Art dismissed it: “It is an interesting investment strategy for the companies that are participating, and it may help them short-term,” he said. “In Applied’s case, I think that they have seen it as an opportunity to expand their flat panel glass business, a good extension of their existing platform, which doesn’t hurt. But like with everything else, there is hype involved with energy conservation.”
“So what is left, then?” I asked. “The N-word?”
“We must look at ultimate solutions. While, yes, eventually there will be fields of solar cells, when it comes to ultimately solving the world’s energy issues the most efficient way today is nuclear. Oil prices keep increasing and people are beginning to suffer, and PVs do not solve the problem. We will migrate back to nuclear.”
“You’d have a hard time selling it, considering the question of nuclear waste,” I said.
“Nuclear residue is relatively small in volume. We must work on solutions to reduce the half-life of materials generated as well as establish a distribution infrastructure for fuel cells. Once we get the distribution infrastructure in place, the same engine can still be used in automobiles; all that is needed is to package the hydrogen containers. Something similar is already being done with taxicabs in Japan. Short-term we must explore, drill, get oil and use the resources available. Longer-term, go nuclear and have these niche technologies such as PV, geothermal, wind, hydro to complement it.” Art added that the government should draft its energy think tanks—Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory—to focus on ways to reduce some of the nuclear waste’s half-life.
I then pointed out that China seems enthusiastic about PV technology.
“When I was recently in Shanghai, the newspaper had an article on the cost per kilowatt once you have the source, and what it cost to make that source,” he said. “They looked at coal, nuclear, and solar, and did a comparison. The actual cost of coal and nuclear was in the $0.05 to $0.07 per kilowatt range. Solar was $3.90. It then considered the cost of manufacturing these sources. Nuclear came to about $8,000 per kilowatt, coal was $6,000, with solar at $60,000 to $70,000. Can these costs be brought down? Certainly! Can they be brought down by orders of magnitude? I don’t think so. Right now, the government currently subsidizes 90% of investment costs. Over the next two years this will phase out here and in Europe. Then it’ll be only China and India still pursuing it.”
What say you, Reader?
Posted by Alexander E. Braun on April 4, 2008 | Comments (9)
