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The Other 450 mm Shoe
May 6, 2008
The three companies openly pushing for 450 mm wafers are working on a plan to subsidize the equipment industry’s 450 mm development effort. The carrot will be large, perhaps approaching a billion dollars when all is said and done. Its increasingly clear that a combined stimulus package is needed to prompt the equipment vendors to start 450 mm development, a well-placed source in Austin said.
Intel Corp., Samsung Electronics Co., and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. went public Monday with their support for a transition to 450 mm wafers beginning in 2012. Toshiba Corp. is keeping out of the spotlight, but also is backing the transition. The companies said the 450 mm effort will develop standards within the International Sematech Manufacturing Initiative (ISMI), “as it plays a critical role in coordinating industry efforts on 450 mm wafer supply, standards setting and developing equipment test bed capabilities.”
ISMI, which has grown to include 16 corporate members, also is a focal point for environmental impact studies, an increasingly important area for an industry awash in chemicals. Look for ISMI to launch a significantly expanded Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) initiative soon. With the recent decision by ES&H guru Walter Worth to retire from Sematech/ISMI, ISMI is searching for a person who can head up the expanded ES&H initiative.
As the Sematech lithography, interconnect, and metrology programs have largely shifted to Albany, lured there by the Empire State's 2:1 matching grants for equipment and salaries, about 50 jobs have moved from Austin to Albany in the past six months. New job creation for Sematech’s core technology R&D also has largely been in Albany. At the same time, ISMI has grown its staff in Austin. The result, employment will be roughly balanced between Austin and Albany, with about 200 people working in each location.
450 Green
In their Monday announcement, Intel, Samsung and TSMC tied the environmental and cost advantages of the 450 mm wafers together. The press release said, “through more efficient use of energy, water and other resources, bigger wafers can help diminish overall use of resources per chip. For example, the conversion from 200 mm wafers to 300 mm wafers helped reduce aggregate emissions per chip of air pollution, global warming gasses and water, and further reduction is expected with a transition to 450 mm wafers.”
Fewer fabs, each with state-of-the-art environmental controls, would be seen as the Green solution in a world increasingly concerned with water and energy consumption.
Mike Goldstein, Intel Corp., holds a 450 mm wafer
So there you have it.
The carrot: subsidies to equipment and materials companies which quickly get on the 450 mm train.
The stick: risk being left out of the four biggest equipment buyers, who account for ~40% of capex spending, and growing. When leading-edge production is considered, the four proponents of 450 mm wafers account for more than half of new equipment purchases.
And the sweetener? The 450 mm wafer fabs are being positioned as the environmentally safer solution.
The opposition to 450 mm wafers has been intense and widespread. The opponents don’t buy the basic argument that moving to the larger wafer size will be more efficient this time around. Instead, they argue, take the billions needed to develop 450 mm equipment and invest that money instead in more automated 300 mm fabs, which are accessible to companies in the middle tier.
Indeed, AMD, Chartered, IBM, Hynix, Powerchip, STMicroelectronics, and UMC are large chip manufacturers, but they are among the companies not quite large enough to afford 450 mm fabs. What the anti-450 crowd argues is that bigger fabs certainly help Intel and the other very large companies as they compete with smaller rivals. That economic survival battle alone nearly guarantees strong opposition to 450 mm wafers. When combined with the economic pressures facing most equipment suppliers now, the 300/450 teeter-totter hangs in the balance.
The debate will continue to intensify this year as the industry gathers at Semicon West beginning July 14, and will be a major focus at the ISMI Symposium on Manufacturing Effectiveness/ISMI Manufacturing Week, October 20‑23. Mark your calendars.
Posted by David Lammers on May 6, 2008 | Comments (4)
