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Wall Street’s Fallout on Albany NanoTech
September 24, 2008

The Empire State has invested ~$900M in the Albany NanoTech research complex, while IBM and other private companies have invested $3.5B in Albany. The result is a thriving R&D community, a technically vibrant IBM, and a public-private partnership that is likely to weather the current economic downturn. Money well spent.

 

The question now is the extent to which the U.S. financial crisis is likely to impact the ambitious growth plans for Albany NanoTech. New York gets fully 20% of its state income tax from the bonuses paid to Wall Street executives, and a third of the state’s overall revenues derive come from taxes on the financial industry. New York has an expected budget shortfall of $6B for the state this year. It gets worse: the expectation is that New York will have a $24B deficit in three years.

 

The good news for Albany NanoTech and IBM is that the former N.Y. governor, Elliot Spitzer, took a negative attitude toward further outlays for Albany and IBM, calling it “corporate welfare.” Spitzer’s prosecutorial attitude was replaced by a more positive tone from New York Gov. David Paterson, who sees the logic in attracting high tech jobs to New York with state support.

 

Paterson is calling on New Yorkers to find ways to bring some balance between public outlays and income, an adult attitude that could result in reduced support for Albany’s plans for new bio-electronics labs, a ~$100M building for alternative energy research, and other items on the wish list of Alain Kaloyeros, the CEO of the College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering (CSNE).

 

During a meeting at CSNE, Kaloyeros was asked if the problems on Wall Street are likely to imperil the funding from the state of New York over the next two or three years. “I hope not,” Kaloyeros said, arguing that “from the governor on down, there is a fundamental understanding of the need for investments to continue. But if Wall Street keeps going south, who knows?” He added that the state of New York “is not going to walk away from its long-term viability.”

 

Anthony Campagiorni, president of the Hudson Valley Economic Development Corp., said he believes that the state won’t cut the already-announced funding to support IBM’s Fishkill fab buildout. IBM has Fab 323, and a nearby 323 annex which is only half-filled with equipment. The walled-off, empty half of the 323 annex will be equipped for the 32/22 nodes, with a modest level of support from the state.

 

Campagiorni said that as long as Paterson and the state legislature see the subsidies for Albany NanoTech, Fishkill, and other high tech initiatives as “job creation” investments, then those funds won’t be retracted.

 

All of this is important, simply because Albany NanoTech itself has become such a key part of the semiconductor R&D effort within the United States. Whatever your thoughts about government subsidies, they are a fact of life in the semiconductor industry. Look at the successes at Dresden, or Singapore, or Hsinchu. While Texas offered loans to Sematech, New York offered Sematech 2:1 matching grants for equipment and salaries. While Tokyo Electron Ltd. was shutting down its track factory in Austin, Albany offered a $75M subsidy to locate its U.S. research center within Albany NanoTech.

 

Now that a significant part of the U.S. semiconductor R&D brainpower is working in Albany, it would be a cruel irony if the missteps of Wall Street financiers would cripple the ability of the Albany-based researchers to keep the semiconductor industry moving forward. As Kaloyeros said last week, “In all candor, we view ourselves as the last line of defense for the U.S. semiconductor industry. It would be a big mistake if the U.S. were to give up the lead.”

 

 


Posted by David Lammers on September 24, 2008 | Comments (4)


September 24, 2008
In response to: Wall Street’s Fallout on Albany NanoTech
Optimist commented:

Consider that the fallout of Wall Street represents a direct reduction of NYS GDP on the order of $12B; and another $10B through indirect effects. The reduction of state taxes should be close to $4B just from direct Wall Street effects, and another $8B from indirect effects. The debt that NYS has accumulated as of 2008 is about $30B; growing at about (?) $6B per year. Another (?) $40B debt is held through its independent authorities, growing at another (?) $5B per year. NYS deficit is likely to reach $8B this year and $10B next year; with deficits projected all the way to 2015. By 2012 the accumulated debt of the state and of its authorities will have exceeded $100B. The 2009 state budget is on the order of $115B. NYS is one the states in worst financial shape. Downgrades are likely. Consider also that the SEMI industry is virtually unprofitable across all of its business segments (exception of processors) and that it was reducing headcount even before the recession hit; and growing extremely slow as it would be expected to be the case in any mature industry. Naturally, the entire semi industry is engaged in cost cutting, mergers and layoffs. R&D budgets are now declining in all but 4 semi companies. Consider also that IBM has almost no semiconductor business left and that Moore's law has effectively ended for most well established industry leaders, and that serious growth is only expected to occur at Intel and TSMC. Consider that NXP is exiting NY by 2009; and that AMD was trying to make a comeback when the recession credit market freeze hit them, and that as a result, AMD may actually be near a total collapse, implying that their NY Malta Fab might never happen. Consider that Intel has rejected the idea of actively engaging assets in Albany Nanotech, and TSMC's R&D is well established in ITRI in Taiwan. That all of Japan Semi Co’s have been contracting for sometime. These considerations indicate that the future of Albany Nanotech looks at best cloudy and at worst stormy. A cloudy forecast would result in a facility about half of its present size by 2010; and a stormy forecast would result in a complete shutdown of its fab lines in the event that IBM's management team decides it is time to quit their semi licensing business, and what they have left of their semi business. Albany Nanotech will have to reinvent itself, become more entrepreneurial and far more productive; and focus their attention on attracting and growing an ecosystem formed by small entrepreneurial companies that will gradually create and exploit new segments of a very changed future semi industry.




September 25, 2008
In response to: Wall Street’s Fallout on Albany NanoTech
SiliconGuru commented:

Spitzer was right, Albany Nanotech was setup to inject state funds to IBM, and to help IBM R&D to grow their IP business. A blatant case of misplaced and discriminatory corporate welfare. Even worse, the funds were injected to the loosing side of the game! Unfortunately, the legislators did not foresee Intel and TSMC industry changing tsunami on the horizon. The result was that IBM R&D and IBM Semi ended up being subsidized by the other profitable divisions of IBM and also by a hopeful NYS, lacking product drive and headed for extinction. NYS also failed to anticipate the cataclysmic change taking place in the gaming console industry. Could it be that Intel, nVidia, Apple and TSMC are about the change the rules of the game in gaming business? May be! It is tough to be an IBMer, only hopes and never results!




September 25, 2008
In response to: Wall Street’s Fallout on Albany NanoTech
previous AN customer commented:

Albany Nanotech needs some work. Have any of you ever paid for some basic research? Their results and papers submitted to my company were pathetic. I do my best to not go there if I don't have to. Basically $30 grand down the drain.




November 11, 2008
In response to: Wall Street’s Fallout on Albany NanoTech
ExSemiNowSolar commented:

NYS knew that it was corporate welfare but the loss of a combined IBM Alliance and the AMD's new fabs would be another huge hit to the tax base. At the same time, NYS started drinking the kool-aid of IBM that IBM could still continue to develop and find suckers to license their technology - it has worked oh so well for both CSM and AMD to which TSMC and Intel are probably quite pleased with. At the same time, the lack of fundamental research within semi companies will start to rear its head in the near-future. Unfortunately, the lack of compelling killer apps requiring more computing power leads to a lack of higher CPU, MPU and memory requirements. What is driving advanced demand now - gaming (certainly High Perf.) and std. corporate (Low Perf.) purchased. Unless you call the bloatware that is Vista inducing a high performance computer to perform like a 386 acceptable. At present, the customers are in technology / economic darwinism (survival of the fittest) which is working well for Intel, TSMC and Samsung. Inducing further supply chain consolidation limiting innovation excluding the supply chain's move into solar.





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