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Time isn't on your side....
August 12, 2007
The two questions I’m asked most frequently by start up companies are (1) “...how long will it take me to get acceptance and commercialization of my new process / technology by the electronics industry” and (2) “...how can I insure that I meet my business plans financial roadmap of having $XX,000,000 in sales in 3 years or less” The short versions of my usually long winded answers are (1) “...like it or not, new technology usually takes 10 years to gain acceptance and sales (depending on where you start and how new the technology really is)” and (2) “you can’t”. Of course there are always exceptions, but usually this is the case. Sometimes that’s the end of my consulting engagement with them, but when they are smart, they listen and adapt.
To me a great example of this is the history of IPDs (Integrated Passive Devices). Integrated passives are thin film structures, usually built up on glass or silicon (to allow for actives like diodes). They should not be confused with “Embedded passives” (passives buried in laminate boards or packaging). The reason they have been of interest is shown in the figure below (ref: Bourns) which shows how the functions of many SMT discrete passive components can be combined into a fraction of the volume (think mobile consumer products such as PDAs, digital cameras, iPODs, GPS devices) when using IPD.
Consider that the hundreds of components present in today's dual band cell phones are expected to be reduced to less than 150 components (ref: ST Microelectronics). Knowing that 95% of the total components are passives and that they represent approximately 70% of the total board area, one must conclude that cell-phone manufacturers' demand for IPDs will continually increase through this decade. Space on a cell phone, or other portable device, board is at a premium. The use of IPDs is clearly one of the few ways to slim down the size of the device or add more features or benefits.
It was the mid 1990’s when the Fraunhoffer IZM Berlin, IMEC and the University of Arkansas research groups began publishing on IPDs using thin film technology and the topic caught on. Intarsia, a joint venture between Dow Chemical and Flextronics started addressing the integrated passives market place in 1997, developing their thin film on glass and thin film on silicon technologies for a variety of wireless and Rf applications. Funds ran out while they were in qualification at several major companies and Intarsia closed its doors in the spring of 2001 not because of a failure of the technology, but because of a failure to accurately predict the acceptance and qualification time of such new technologies to their corporate backers.
ST Microelectronics has been manufacturing their IPADTM (integrated passive and active device) technology for a few years now in their Singapore facility and offer a wide array of integrated passives for mobile phone, PDA, digital camera and notebook computer wireless functions such as ESD protection diodes, EMI low pass filters, line terminations, pull-up or pull-down resistors, signal switches and RF components. It should be noted, however, that this technology spent many years in R&D and development in their facilities in Agrate (outside Milan) and Crolles (Fr).
STATS chipPAC also saw the possibilities for IPD technology. CTO BJ Han (ex Bell Labs and Amkor) licensed this technology and has had it in development for over 6 years. I’m told CSMPTM (chip scale module packaging - their name for IPD technology) is now running over 1000 wafers per month, has (3) customers in qualification and (4) customers who are ramping production. That’s right, it has taken 6+ years AFTER obtaining a technology package developed by one of the best technology companies of all times (Bell Labs).
The message here isn’t to discourage entrepreneurs but rather to encourage some realism in their business plans which all to often significantly underestimate the time necessary to introduce truly new technology.
Posted by Philip Garrou on August 12, 2007 | Comments (0)
