Polycrystalline silicon price predicted to go down from 2009

BEIJING, April 23 (Xinhua) ? The price of polycrystalline silicon, a key raw material for producing semiconductor devices and solar cells, is likely to reach its peak level in 2009 and then move downwards for oversupply, predict analysts with Greatwall Securities.

The analysts predict that the global annual polycrystalline silicon demand from semiconductor device manufacturing will reach 22, 000 tons, 23,100 tons and 24,200 tons respectively in 2008-2010, based on predicted annual growth of 6.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the global annual demand from solar cell making will reach 47,300 tons, 61,500 tons and 80,000 tons respectively in 2008- 2010, based on annual growth of 30 percent in 2007-2008 and 50 percent from 2009 thanks to lower price.

On the supply side, traditional industrial players and new comers are aggressively expanding their production capacity prompted by surging price on tight supply, with estimated production capacity of traditional suppliers at 55,000 tons, 73,000 tons and 84,000 tons respectively in 2008-2010 and production capacity of new suppliers at 10,000 tons, 20,000 tons and 21,000 tons.

In China, polycrystalline silicon output is estimated to stand around 4,000 tons, 10,000 tons and 30,000 tons respectively for the three years from 2008 to 2010.

Pushed by high price of polycrystalline silicon, photovoltaic modules also witnessed steady price surge, however, the rapid industrial expansion in recent two years impeded passing higher costs onto downstream users, and photovoltaic module price even decreased to some extent. Enditem (?)