Equipment Vendors Need to Rethink 450 mm Future
David Lammers, News Editor -- Semiconductor International, 10/19/2007 8:52:00 AM
Semiconductor equipment vendors need to be aware of the rapidly shrinking nature of their customer base, and face up to the reality that leading IC vendors are going to be expecting 450 mm wafer production equipment at some point, said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.).
Speaking at a Market Outlook event organized by the members of SEMI’s Austin branch, McClean said only 15 companies will be building leading-edge fabs when the industry makes the inevitable transition from 300 to 450 mm wafers. Presently, 71 different companies own 200 mm fabs, but only 27 own 300 mm fabs. That number will shrink to just 15 when 450 mm wafers arrive.
 |
| In 2006, the top 15 chip makers controlled about 60% of total wafer capacity. |
“I don’t know when 450 mm will happen, but when it does, there will be 15 customers. It is easy to say ‘no’ now, but it won’t be easy when TSMC or Intel come knocking on your door. It won’t be easy to turn them down, because there won’t be anyone behind them. Equipment companies can say ‘no’ for awhile, but if you are selling new equipment, there are 15 customers. That’s it. Be nice,” McClean said.
 |
| Intel's Mike Goldstein holds a 450 mm wafer. |
Already, the five largest chip companies control about one-third of capacity. McClean noted that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) executives, speaking recently at a panel at SEMICON Taiwan2007, endorsed the use of 450 mm wafers — a critical shift by a major equipment purchaser.
Currently, the major semiconductor vendors are gaining major production efficiencies from using 300 mm wafers, forcing ASPs down even as unit volumes remain strong, he said.
