Semiconductor Equipment Monitor
-- Semiconductor International, 4/1/2001
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Manufacturers' Shipments of Electronic Components
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Manufacturers' Shipments of Communications Equipment
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The value of January 2001 semiconductor equipment shipments was pegged at $2.34B, while new orders during the month were estimated to be worth $1.89B. Bookings had exceeded shipments in every month since December 1998 until the final months of 2000.
The January book-to-bill specifically for the test/assembly segment of the market was little changed from December -- but remained at the disturbingly low level of 0.71. For front-end equipment (~76% of the North American market, by shipments value) the January 2001 ratio was a healthier level of 0.83 -- but sharply lower than the 1.19 book-to-bill average recorded for this market segment over the previous three months.
Overall orders to equipment manufacturers plunged by 20.6% between December and January, following losses of a much smaller magnitude over the previous two months. Since there's still a fair amount of work in the pipeline because of the strong order volume recorded during the second half of last year, the value of product shipments declined by a much less precipitous 2.3% during the first month of 2001.
Despite plummeting orders late in the year, 2000 as a whole was still a very good year for the semiconductor equipment industry. Worldwide sales for the first 11 months of last year (the global numbers always lag the North American-based data by a month or two) were almost double the total value for January-November of 1999, with sales through November 2000 running 93.1% ahead of the year-earlier pace. Equipment sales growth during 2000 was exceptional across all regions of the globe. The value of semiconductor equipment sold to North American chip manufacturers was up 76.3% through 11 months of 2000, while sales to Japan were 65.8% higher over January-November 2000 than through the same period of 1999. And the value of equipment sold into the European marketplace and to the rest of the world (almost exclusively to Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and other nations in the Asia/Pacific region) grew at nearly twice the rate of growth in North America and Japan. Equipment sales to Europe were up 106.9% through November 2000, and sales to the rest of the world increased by 118.8% between January-November 1999 and the first 11 months of 2000.
However, we believe that we'll find the December shipment numbers to be very weak, and therefore annual growth in all regions of the globe will be lower than the 11-month trend. And our preliminary forecasts for 2001 show all regions experiencing a decline in semiconductor equipment sales, with the Asian markets (the strongest growth areas during 2000 and 2001) recording the steepest declines. The market should begin to show signs of recovery by the end of this year, and growth -- albeit modest -- should return during 2002.
| Table 1. Equipment Sales Trends by Regional Market | ||||||||
| Billions of U.S. dollars | % Change from a year ago | |||||||
| Total | Projected | Actual | Projected | |||||
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| World | 25.50 | 46.53 | 42.89 | 47.98 | 16.2 | 82.5 | -7.8 | 11.9 |
| Americas | 7.45 | 12.85 | 12.43 | 13.81 | -2.2 | 72.4 | -3.3 | 11.1 |
| Japan | 5.52 | 8.57 | 7.69 | 8.56 | 17.3 | 55.1 | -10.3 | 11.4 |
| Europe | 3.24 | 6.40 | 6.13 | 6.78 | 11.4 | 97.9 | -4.3 | 10.6 |
| Asia/Pacific | 9.29 | 18.72 | 16.65 | 18.83 | 38.4 | 101.5 | -11.0 | 13.1 |
| Historical Data: SEMI | Forecast: Semiconductor International | |||||||
| Table 2. Price Trends (% Change in producer prices, June 1999-June 2000) | |
| All capital equipment for manufacturing | 0.9% |
| All semiconductor manufacturing equipment | -0.7 |
| Wafer processing equipment | -2.5 |
| Microlithography | -0.8 |
| Etch and strip | 0.0 |
| Assembly and packaging equipment | 5.9 |
| Parts for semiconductor mfg. machinery | 0.0 |
| Source: U.S. Labor Department |
