Pinto: Grid Parity Coming Soon
Laura Peters, Editor-in-Chief -- Semiconductor International, 5/1/2008 7:42:00 AM
Depending on where you live in the world, grid parity for solar energy is coming soon or has already arrived, according to Mark Pinto, senior vice president and general manager of Applied Materials’ Energy and Environmental Solutions (Santa Clara, Calif). In his talk addressing the hype, cynicism and opportunity around the photovoltaics (PV) industry at the SEMI Strategic Business Conference in Napa Valley, Calif., yesterday, Pinto pointed out that many countries in Europe are approaching grid parity with conventional forms of providing electricity, including oil, coal and natural gas. Furthermore, Pinto showed a detailed analysis of California’s PV pricing versus grid pricing and the expected crossover of price per kw-hr for large scale deployment of large size Thin Fillm PV by 2010 (Fig 2).
While much investment is taking place in Europe, Asia and the United States for PV, Applied’s estimate of energy needs and energy production by PV shows that even with a 21% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 40 years, PV will still struggle to meet 25% of the increase in global need (Fig. 1). “This is using conservative numbers for countries such as
 |
| 1. If solar energy production increases at a 20% CAGR, it will meet 20% of the increase in world need in 2040. (Source: Solar Generation and IEA-PVPS) |
The current efficiency of monocrystalline PV cells is 20-21% while multicrystalline cells are typically 4-6% lower. Pinto said it is important to distinguish between cell efficiency and module efficiency because the module efficiency is typically 2-3% lower than cell efficiency. Obviously any small improvement in efficiency will change the ever-critical cost per Watt. In 2007, the price of PV modules was ~$4/W, 50 cents of which was inflated because of the polysilicon shortage. Because silicon crystal pulling is such a large part of PV cost, it tends to be performed in regions of the world where electricity is less expensive.
PV installations take one of two forms: small, rooftop consumer level systems or large (GW) commercial installations, such as those being built by Sharp in Japan and Sunpower in San Jose. The commercial fabs are typically designed at the 50-100 MW level, but GW fabs, costing ~$2B, are in the planning stages. With no incentives, assuming a commercial PV installation in California, including installation costs, losses and maintenance, costs approach ~40 cents/kWh. One of the advantages to PV is it can offset expensive electricity during peak demand hours in the summer.
Pinto stressed that the focus today in PV is less in new technologies than it is in reducing the cost and price of modules to make it affordable in all regions of the world, regardless of incentives. For instance, a move to larger panels reduced the necessary hardware for installation, which was equivalent to a 2% to 3% increase in module efficiency. However, incentives definitely do work, as witnessed in Germany where installation costs were offset and unused power was sold back to the grid at 3× the average utility price under the “feed-in tariff.”. With increased volumes, efficiency improvements and the manufacture of larger panels, cost will continue to decrease (Fig. 2). One of the unsolved problems, Pinto admits, is the need for a good battery. “Given the synergy with the automotive industry, there is a great opportunity for new battery technology that truly enables 24 hour solar power,” he said. He commented that nanotechnology, supercapacitors and carbon nanotubes could play a role in battery development, and a hybrid approach may ultimately deliver the best solution.
 |
| 2. California already experiences lower price per kwhr for PV versus peak rates. Large scale, large size Thin Film PV will crossover kwhr average rate pricing during 2010. (Source: Applied Materials) |
