Semiconductor Equipment Monitor
-- Semiconductor International, 3/1/2001
The composite book-to-bill ratio for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers declined for the fourth consecutive month during the final month of last year, according to data compiled by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). With a December 2000 reading of 1.03, the SEMI book-to-bill fell to its lowest level of the past 24 months, after reaching a peak reading of 1.46 during March 2000.The value of December 2000 semiconductor equipment shipments was pegged at $2.38B, while new orders during the month were estimated to be worth $2.46B. Bookings have exceeded shipments in every month since December 1998, after the book-to-bill ratio had consistently fallen below parity (1.00) throughout that last "down" year.
The year-end-2000 book-to-bill specifically for the test/assembly segment of the market inched up from its November reading --but remained at the disturbingly low level of 0.77. For front-end equipment (approximately 76% of the North American market, by shipments value) the December 2000 ratio remained at a healthier level of 1.12 --but this was far below the 1.31 book-to-bill recorded for this market segment just four months earlier.
Overall orders to equipment manufacturers plunged by 9.6% between November and December, following a loss of almost the same magnitude the month before. With so much work in the pipeline, though, the value of product shipments declined less precipitously during the final two months of last year, by 5.2% and 2.4% in November and December, respectively. And the absolute dollar numbers looked much better at year-end 2000 than at the close of 1999 --although the relationships were not nearly as favorable as they had been during the spring and summer of last year. The value of December 2000 equipment shipments was nearly 50% higher than in December 1999, while the value of new orders ended last year about 29% above the total for December 1999.
Despite the late-in-the-year swoon in the semiconductor equipment market, the year 2000 taken as a whole was a very good one for the industry. Worldwide sales for the first eleven months of last year (the global numbers always lag the North-American-based data by a month or two) were almost than double the total value for January-November of 1999, with sales through November of 2000 running 93.1% ahead of the year-earlier pace. Equipment sales growth during 2000 was exceptional across all regions of the globe. The value of semiconductor equipment sold to North American chip manufacturers was up 76.3% through eleven months of 2000, while sales to Japan were 65.8% higher over January-November 2000 than through the same period of 1999. And the value of equipment sold into the European marketplace and to the rest of the world (almost exclusively to Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and other nations in the Asia/Pacific region) grew at nearly twice the rate of growth in North America and Japan. Equipment sales to Europe were up 106.9% through November 2000, and sales to the rest of the world increased by 118.8% between January-November 1999 and the first eleven months of 2000.
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| Table 1. Equipment Sales Trends by Regional Market | ||||||||
| Billions of U.S. dollars | % Change from a year ago | |||||||
| Total | Projected | Actual | Projected | |||||
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | |
| World | 21.95 | 25.50 | 46.67 | 51.11 | -20.4 | 16.2 | 83.1 | 9.5 |
| Americas | 7.62 | 7.45 | 12.13 | 13.14 | -16.5 | -2.2 | 62.8 | 8.3 |
| Japan | 4.71 | 5.52 | 8.33 | 8.55 | -30.5 | 17.3 | 50.8 | 2.7 |
| Europe | 2.91 | 3.24 | 6.20 | 7.04 | -5.1 | 11.4 | 91.8 | 13.5 |
| Asia/Pacific | 6.71 | 9.29 | 20.01 | 22.38 | -22.1 | 38.4 | 115.5 | 11.8 |
| Historical Data: SEMI | Forecast: Semiconductor International | |||||||
| Table 2. Price Trends (% Change in producer prices, June 1999-June 2000) | |
| All capital equipment for manufacturing | 0.8% |
| All semiconductor manufacturing equipment | -0.8 |
| Wafer processing equipment | -2.2 |
| Microlithography | -1.1 |
| Etch and strip | 0.0 |
| Assembly and packaging equipment | 4.0 |
| Parts for semiconductor mfg. machinery | 0.0 |
| Source: U.S. Labor Department | |
