Georgia Tech Report: China Now Rivals United States in Technology Competitiveness

Staff -- Semiconductor International, 1/24/2008 8:25:00 AM

A long-running study of technological competitiveness by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta) suggests China may soon rival the United States as the principal driver of the world’s economy — a position the United States has held since the end of World War II.

With stunning swiftness over the past dozen years, the report concludes, China has moved from a markedly inferior position to rivaling the United States for world technological leadership. And if the 27 nations comprising the European Union were taken as a single entity, Europe would also surpass the United States, according to the report.

The indicators predict that China will soon pass the United States in the critical ability to develop basic science and technology, turn those developments into products and services, and then market them to the world.

The study is part of a continuing look at high-tech competitivness conducted by Georgia Tech researchers since the mid-1980s, when Japan was seen as the competitive threat to the United States. The “High Tech Indicators” (HTI) study ranks 33 nations relative to one another on “technological standing.”

China has rapidly improved its overall technology competitiveness, according to a study by the Georgia Institute of Technology.

The study factors in exports of high-tech products and considers four major inputs based on a combination of statistical data and expert opinions, including national orientation toward technological competitiveness, socioeconomic infrastructure, technological infrastructure, and productive capacity.

On the input indicators calculated for 2007, China lags behind the United States. In “national orientation,” China won a score of 62.6, compared with 78.0 for the United States. In “socioeconomic infrastructure,” China rated 61.2, compared with 87.9 for the United States. In the other two factors, China was also behind the United States, 60.0 vs. 95.5 for “technological infrastructure” and 85.2 vs. 93.4 for “productive capacity.”

However, the authors noted that China has been dramatically improving its input scores, which portends even stronger technological competitiveness in the future.

With exports factored in, the 2007 statistics show China with a “technological standing” of 82.8, compared with 76.1 for the United States, 66.8 for Germany and 66.0 for Japan. Just 11 years ago, China’s score was only 22.5. The United States peaked in 1999 with a score of 95.4.

The United States and Japan have both fallen in relative technological standing — although not in absolute measures — because of the dramatic rise of China and other nations, such as the “Asian Tigers” of South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. If the increasingly integrated European Union were considered one entity instead of 27 separate countries, it would surpass the United States.

The current “HTI-2007” information was gathered for use in the recently released report by the National Science Foundation (NSF, Arlington, Va.), “Science and Engineering Indicators.”

Nils Newman, co-author of the Georgia Tech report, said the indicators point to a competition-among-equals scenario between China and the United States. “For the first time in nearly a century, we see leadership in basic research — and the economic ability to pursue the benefits of that research — to create and market products based on research in more than one place on the planet.

“It’s like being 40 years old and playing basketball against a competitor who’s only 12 years old, but is already at your height,” Newman said. “You are a little better right now and have more experience, but you’re not going to squeeze much more performance out. The future clearly doesn’t look good for the United States.”

Co-author Alan Porter said, “When you take China’s low-cost manufacturing and focus on technology, then combine them with the increasing emphasis on research and development, the result ultimately won’t leave much room for other countries.”