Solar Industry Needs Semiconductor Brain Trust

Paula Doe, SEMI, San Jose, www.semi.org -- Semiconductor International, 5/4/2007

The solar industry needs the engineering and manufacturing expertise of the semiconductor industry if it is going to compete with conventional electricity generation, according to Rhone Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA, Washington). “If we can get the brain trust of the semiconductor industry behind solar, we can bring down costs and become mainstream,” Resch said. “It’s one of those rare opportunities where one can make money and, at the same time, do the right thing.” It’s also, he argued, the unique advantage of solar that it can draw on this wealth of accumulated semiconductor industry experience to go mainstream much faster than the other alternative energy options.

Resch is expanding on these ideas in his keynote speech, “Solar Energy — The Next Great Growth Opportunity for the Semiconductor Industry,” at SEMICON West on Wednesday, July 18, 2007, at the Center Stage, 2nd floor of Moscone West, at 2:15 p.m.

Though solar is the fastest growing clean energy sector in the world, it’s just starting to come to the United States. Solar installations jumped 38% in the United States last year, to an annual capacity of 142 MW, according to the SEIA. Most of the increase was in grid-connected systems, up 60% to ~100 MW. And the lion’s share of that — ~70 MW worth — was in California, thanks to the state’s incentives. But that’s nothing compared with the rest of the world. Germany installed 7× more solar than the United States in 2006, despite having about the same available sunshine as Anchorage, Alaska. And, inspired by Germany’s success at generating both low carbon energy and jobs with its utilities program to buy back power from those who install solar systems, now Spain, Greece, Italy and other European countries are adding similar incentive programs. “Demand for solar will clearly continue to outstrip supply for the next three to five years,” Resch said. “We could double or triple the supply and it will all be absorbed.”

Source: Solar Electric Industries Association (SEIA), April 2007

Still, to be competitive with traditional forms of electricity generation without outside support, solar has some ways to go to improve efficiency, bring down costs and scale up manufacturing. Though technology for improving cell conversion efficiency has gotten much of the engineering attention, and getting more energy out of the cell can of course reduce the cost per kilowatt, better manufacturing systems may actually be just as important. Commercial crystalline silicon cells, which dominate the market with a 94% share, average 14-15% efficiency, with the best performing technologies reaching 22%. Resch said there is probably still room for a 50% improvement in solar efficiency, but there may be limits to the economic benefits of further improvements at some point. “Just how efficient does solar really need to be?” he wondered. “Coal’s conversion efficiency is still only 32%.”

More important, he argued, is bringing down manufacturing costs, by such things as deposition tools with better yields and higher throughput, economical slicing and handling tools for thinner wafers, better coating materials, lower-cost polysilicon, and generally ramping up to more efficient high-volume production. Integrating the inverter and other associated electronics into the solar module will also help.

There is also opportunity in new business models. The commercial market for solar roof panels recently surpassed the residential market, despite lower electricity costs for many commercial users. Federal tax credits that aren’t capped like they are for residential installations helped, but so have some new business models, like power purchase agreements, where a financing company will install and own a solar system on a store or factory’s roof, and sell the power back to the user.

Visit www.semiconwest.org for more information and to register for SEMICON West, held July 16-20, 2007, in San Francisco.