Electronics Industry Update
-- Semiconductor International, 1/1/2001
The estimated dollar value of semiconductor chip sales for September 2000 was 41.8% greater than during the same month of 1999 — an impressive increase by any standard, but the slowest over-the-year improvement reported in the past five months. Thus, the semiconductor market was finally beginning to show some sign of losing at least a bit of its extraordinary momentum as we moved into the final quarter of last year.
Through the first three-quarters of 2000, the estimated value of overall worldwide semiconductor sales was 43.0% greater than over the first nine months of 1999.
The dollar value of chip sales to the Americas during September 2000 was 49.0% above its September 1999 level, an expansion somewhat better than the 41.8% average global over-the-year increase in sales. Cumulative year-to-date sales to the region were running 39.6% higher through the first three-quarters of last year when compared with January-September of 1999, versus the somewhat-stronger global year-to-date increase of 43.0%.
Sales to Europe during this past September were 29.1% above their September 1999 level. Year-to-date, chip sales to this global region were running 37.8% ahead of the 1999 pace through the first three-quarters of 2000.
Sales to Japan were 49.8% higher in September 2000 than during September 1999. Through the first nine months of 2000, chip sales to Japan were growing at a pace 47.0% ahead of the 1999 level — slightly better even than the worldwide growth pace of 43.0%.
The dollar value of chip sales to the rest of the Asia/Pacific market (all nations of the region, excluding Japan) was 37.3% greater during September of last year than in September of 1999. January-September sales for 2000 were 48.6% greater than over the first three-quarters of 1999, representing the best year-to-date 2000 performance among the four quadrants of the world. However, the September 2000 over-the-year change in Asia/Pacific markets was the smallest for any month since October 1999, so even this fast-charging region was showing signs of losing some growth momentum as we entered the final quarter of 2000.
End-market demand
Industrial production in the nation's electronic components industry group rose by 3.3% between August and September of 2000, following upwardly revised increases over the prior two months. However, the gains over the past two months have been the smallest of the year, so there is evidence that momentum is waning (at least a bit) in this high-flying sector.
Monthly gains during the first half of 2000 averaged an exceptional 6.5%, but even after revisions this year's third-quarter growth averaged a more subdued 3.5% a month. This is hardly cause for alarm, but a sure sign that the electronic components industry has moved from being "white hot" to merely "red hot." Industry output during the first three-quarters of 2000 was estimated to have risen to a level 74.3% above the total production count for January-September 1999.
Estimates from the Federal Reserve Board's monthly industrial production survey show that computer/peripherals industry output during October 2000 rose a moderate 2.4% above the September production level. Although a solid monthly gain, this still represented (at least in preliminary form) the slowest rate of growth recorded by the industry since December 1999.
Output from the nation's communications equipment industry is estimated to have increased by a solid 2.2% between August and September of 2000, following a gain of almost the same magnitude the month before. This represented the ninth time in the past 10 months that a given month's output has moved above the prior month's level (June being the lone exception). Overall communications equipment production during the month of September 2000 was a very healthy 25.4% greater than during the ninth month of 1999. And overall industry output through the first three-quarters of 2000 was running 21.7% ahead of the January-September 1999 total.
