A Fresh Start for the New Millennium

Peter H. Singer, Editor-in-Chief -- Semiconductor International, 1/1/2000

The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) is and has been a great tool for the semiconductor industry. It has given everyone a clear direction and has helped point out roadblocks in almost every conceivable area of technology. Most equipment and materials suppliers have used it as the starting point when developing company strategies and R&D goals, and we clearly are beginning to see the fruits of those labors.

But let's face it. Something major is missing from the Roadmap. Nobody - at least until very recently - has bothered to try to understand its feasibility from an economic perspective. In short, can equipment and materials suppliers really meet the Roadmap's goals, while still maintaining some kind of decent return on investment?

This certainly has proven not to be the case in the world of 300 mm processing. According to a recent SEMATECH survey, people found the 300 mm effort lacking in two main areas. There was a lack of shared risk between suppliers and device makers; and there was a lack of clear communications regarding expectations and plans.

Well, duh. But what's the fun of making mistakes if you can't learn from them? SEMATECH, to its credit, launched a "300 mm Lessons Learned" project last year that included an internal report as well as one done by an outside party, Arthur Andersen. The consortium hopes to make these lessons "an integral part of future interactions among device makers, suppliers and consortia, as the industry confronts and works through new technical and economic challenges identified by the ITRS."

Preliminary findings from the "300 mm Lessons Learned" project were presented late last year to an Industry Executive Forum, and are now posted on SEMATECH's Web site.

Although many "lessons" are listed in those findings - such as some disagreement about the role of I300I - I believe the two most important are: 1) investment and return on investment were not shared equitably; and 2) technology versus business goals were not balanced.

One way to avoid such problems in the future is to include economic considerations in the ITRS, and - surprise! - that's exactly what's now underway at International SEMATECH. At the IEF forum, Frank Robertson presented progress to date on an Industry Economic Model. The basic model outline has been defined, with a demand/capacity model to be added in February, followed by an analysis of tool requirements. When finalized, the model will be useful for sensitivity analysis on the effects of technology acceleration, the introduction of new tool sizes and other impacts on the semiconductor industry.

Also helping to make sure equipment and materials suppliers are communicating more effectively with chip makers is an association called the Semiconductor Industry Suppliers Association (SISA), formed from a renaming of SEMI/SEMATECH. Ed Graham, the incoming president, sees SISA playing a critical role in focusing the ever-increasing complexity of the supplier infrastructure, which over the years has stratified into original equipment manufacturers, subsystems, components, automation and material suppliers. "In addition to our traditional role as the primary liaison between supplier companies and SEMATECH, we will now continue to play a leading role in driving both evolutionary and revolutionary improvements in the supplier value chain," said Graham.

As we move into the new millennium, it's time for a fresh start - let's take our lessons learned from the past and know at least what we need to do differently as we move forward.