Electronics Industry Update

Worldwide Semiconductor Shipments	Manufacturers' Shipments of Electronic Components
Manufacturers' Shipments of Computers	Manufacturers' Shipments of Communications Equipment

Worldwide semiconductor shipments increased only a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in November, but this was on top of a 15% surge in the previous three months. This surge was comprised of a 7% price rise and an 8% unit increase. U.S. shipments will be reported ~19% higher in 2003 in terms of value, with a 29% rise expected this year. The market recovery will continue into 2005 with an additional 17% rise, mostly early in the year.

IC average selling prices have increased 10 cents since the summer, mostly due to reduced inventories and also capacity pressure at the newest fabs; only a penny was due to the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Production volume is now almost 15% higher than the 2000 peak, but new and restarted capacity will keep overall prices steady until late in 2004.

At the beginning of 2004, U.S. computer and telecom equipment factory shipments were up >20% from a year earlier, but this growth pace will be halved later this year for computers and by late 2005 for the telecom market that had a delayed start to its recovery. The telecom market is still being driven by consumer purchases, but communications carrier purchases should be rising faster than consumer purchases later this year.