Electronics Industry Update
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 1/1/2004
| Semiconductor Shipments | Production Trends & Forecasts of Semiconductors |
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| Production Trends & Forecasts of Computers | Production Trends & Forecasts of Communications Equipment |
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IC shipments passed the 2000 peak level at the end of the summer, and are expected to continue rising at about an 11% annual pace through the end of 2004. Spot shortages and higher prices have appeared for some consumer electronics circuits as well as other parts that are run on fab lines with the latest technology processes. But increased demand has not yet tightened supplies significantly for parts manufactured with older processes.
The demand surge results from a worldwide economic recovery that has progressed the furthest in the United States and Japan. Chinese domestic demand continues to expand the most quickly. Purchases of consumer durables and capital equipment are growing at a 20% per year pace. This has not changed significantly in the past several years. Caution: The recent rapid rise of inflation in China may signal a slowdown ahead in Chinese economic growth.
October's U.S. Industrial Production report confirms that computer production has returned to a sustainable 20% annual growth pace after the war-related weakness early in 2003. Semiconductor production growth is back to a 40% pace. These estimates include both more parts and more content per part.
