Semiconductor Equipment Monitor
-- Semiconductor International, 4/1/2002
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The composite book-to-bill ratio for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers rose to a level of 0.81 during the first month of 2002. This means that for every $100 in equipment shipped during January of this year, an estimated $81 in new orders were received by manufacturers.
The ratio was almost identical to the 0.80 reading recorded during the first month of 2001, but much stronger than the sub-0.50 levels registered in the spring of last year. However, both shipments and new orders remained at depressed levels during the first month of the new year, and the improvement in the book-to-bill ratio reflects only the mildly encouraging fact that bookings show some evidence of stabilizing even as billings (final shipments associated with earlier orders) continue to fall.
Preliminary data for the first month of 2002 show bookings increasing 1.3% from their December 2001 level, following an even stronger 6.7% gain during the final month of last year. Billings, on the other hand, turned down (-4.3%) again during January, following a slight (+0.3%) increase between November and December. The value of equipment shipped by North American manufacturers has now fallen below $1B for five consecutive months. And an average of only $623M in new orders was received by equipment makers over the same five-month period, so there's still no sign that the industry's fortunes will improve significantly in the months immediately ahead. This January's billings and new bookings were both 66% below the totals recorded during the first month of 2001.
Global semiconductor equipment sales during 2001 were worth an estimated $28.1B, according to preliminary summary data compiled by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). This was 41.1% below the record total of $47.7B in equipment shipped during 2000.
Equipment shipments to North American chipmakers during the 12 months of 2001 were valued at 36.7% below the total for 2000, and represented about 29% of the total global market.
The value of shipments of semiconductor equipment to Europe during 2001 was 40.7% less than in 2000, while shipments to Japan were off a comparatively modest 17.2% last year. Sales to the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) market were off the most of any region during 2001. But even with a 55.8% over-the-year decline, sales to this region accounted for slightly more than 30% of the worldwide total (down from 40% in 2000).
As last year drew to a close, the Asia-Pacific region was showing signs of improvement from its very depressed base, but both North America and Europe were still treading water while market conditions in Japan were deteriorating rapidly. Our revised forecasts anticipate another double-digit decline in worldwide equipment sales during 2002 --although the magnitude of the loss won't be nearly as severe as that recorded last year.
Although there is some evidence of gathering momentum on the technology (vs. capacity) "buy" side of the market, the continued glut of global chipmaking capacity and depressed corporate profits simply won't support enough new investment to push equipment sales higher this year. However, the market will bottom out during the first half of 2002, and we should start to see some sequential gains (from the very depressed base) over the year's final two quarters. And as more firms become convinced of the likelihood of a worldwide economic recovery during the second half of this year and into 2003, pressure will build for investment in new, more-efficient, cost-reducing chipmaking equipment and technologies.
Semiconductor Equipment Sales Trends By Regional Market
|
Billions of U.S. dollars |
% Change from a year ago | |||||||
|
Total |
Projected |
Actual |
Projected | |||||
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 | |
|
World |
47.68 |
28.06 |
19.99 |
25.01 |
87.0 |
-41.1 |
-28.8 |
25.1 |
|
Americas |
12.93 |
8.18 |
6.77 |
8.47 |
73.5 |
-36.7 |
-17.3 |
25.0 |
|
Japan |
9.18 |
7.60 |
3.67 |
4.48 |
66.2 |
-17.2 |
-51.7 |
22.3 |
|
Europe |
6.44 |
3.82 |
2.87 |
3.64 |
99.1 |
-40.7 |
-24.8 |
26.6 |
|
Asia/Pacific |
19.13 |
8.46 |
6.68 |
8.42 |
106.0 |
-55.8 |
-21.7 |
26.1 |
Historical Data: SEMI
Forecast: Semicon
Price Trends
(% Change in producer prices for January 2001-January 2002)
|
All capital equipment for manufacturing |
0.1% |
|
All semiconductor manufacturing equipment |
1.2% |
Source: U.S. Labor Department
