Cahners In-Stat Group Predicts Positive Growth for Flash Market and Increase for AASPs in '99
-- Semiconductor International, 11/1/1998
Cahners In-Stat Group expects the Flash market to grow at a
compound annual growth rate of slightly more than 20% over the next five years.
While aggregate (total dollars divided by total units) ASP and ASP by density is expected to drop significantly again in 1998, it is anticipated that AASP recovery will start mid to late 1999 but will lack the vigor to show an increase for the year. The first year to achieve an increase in AASP since 1995 is not expected to occur until 2000.
'Flash was one of two memory families to achieve positive growth in 1997, the other being EEPROM,' said Walt Lahti, manager of Cahners In-Stat Group's Semiconductor Memory Group. 'Flash dollar growth only reached 3.5%, but the total memory market dropped -18.6%.' The Flash market growth, in dollars, was fueled by an increase of more than 58% in unit shipments, as aggregate and individual ASP took a beating.
According to Cahners In-Stat, the Flash market is experiencing tremendous pricing pressures. 'A combination of learning curve, technological advances and increases in fab capacity have created the ability to produce more bits than the market is willing to absorb at a specified price, thereby causing bit price to decrease,' Lahti said. This rapid reduction of price per bit is reflected in falling ASPs at both the density and aggregate levels.
Flash 1998 Market Analysis Report No. FM9804MF, written by Lahti, provides a
five-year forecast of Flash dollar and unit shipments by density and examines
Flash ASP trends in considerable detail. ASP and cost per Mbit by density
values, as well as total dollar shipments by geographic area, voltage and
end-use category are included. The report is priced at $2495. 
