Electronics Industry Update
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 6/1/1999
| Worldwide Sales of Semiconductor Devices  Historical Data: WSTS Forecast: Semiconductor International |
Manufacturers' Shipments of Electronic Components  Historical Data: U.S. Department of Commerce Forecast: Semiconductor International |
|
Manufacturers'
Shipments of Computers & Office Equipment  Historical Data: U.S. Department of Commerce Forecast: Semiconductor International |
Production Trends and
Forecasts, Consumer Electronics  Historical Data: U.S. Department of Commerce Forecast: Semiconductor International |
Between February 1998 and February 1999, shipments from manufacturers of computers and office equipment rose 10.4%. A strong February increase was enough to recoup the losses experienced during each of the prior three months, but still left shipments value this February 0.2% higher than in October 1998. The February-to-February over-the-year gain of 10.4% represented the smallest annual growth pace for computer industry shipments since January 1998. It's clear that growth trends for the computer industry have peaked for the time being. New orders have declined by 4.9% in January and by another 0.6% during February of this year. As a leading indicator, this orders trend suggests further slowdown in computer shipments in the months immediately ahead.
The value of shipments from U.S. communications equipment manufacturers
plunged by 5.6% between January and February, following very healthy gains in
each of the prior three months. We're forecasting shipment growth of a
comparatively modest 8.2% in 1999, followed by a 10.6% increase in the dollar
value of communications equipment shipments from U.S. manufacturers in the year
2000. 
1999 Semiconductor Capital Spending:
%
Change from 1998
Key points:
- Our survey results points to a worldwide spending increase of 3% this year.
- Companies are rapidly revising their spending plans upward. (Three months ago, survey results pointed to a 2% decrease.)
- Spending by the Rest of Asia (Singapore, China and Malaysia) will increase by almost 60%.
- Spending by Taiwanese companies will increase by 30%.
- Spending by Korean companies will increase by 4% and could go higher as Hyundai digests the LG Semicon acquisition.
- Japanese spending increase is mainly due to currency fluctuations.
- Spending plans by U.S. and European companies will likely be revised upward as the year progresses.
