Electronics Industry Update
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 12/1/1998
| Worldwide Sales of Semiconductor Devices  Historical Data: WSTS Forecast: Cahners Economics |
Manufacturers' Shipments of Office & Computing Machines  Historical Data: U.S. Department of Commerce Forecast: Cahners Economics |
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U.S.manufacturers
computer and office equipment shipments totaled ;$11.10 billion in August,
17.6% ahead of August 1997. Through August, SIC 357 shipments totaled
over $85 billion, a 16.3% increase from January-August 1997. We are calling
for a 14.8% gain in computer industry shipments this year, better than
last year's 7% value. Our 1999 forecast pegs growth at slightly below
9%. Communications equipment manufacturers shipments value increased 2.3%
July-August. Through August, communications equipment industry shipments
ran 10.2% ahead of 1997. Communications equipment export growth has slowed.
Domestic demand remains strong, but we are forecasting slower growth than
1997's 13.6%. We are looking for 1998 growth to be 8.9%, followed by a
gain of ;12% in 1999. U.S. electronic components manufacturers shipment
value decreased 0.4% July-August. Year-to-date numbers remain in the black.
Through August, SIC 367 manufacturers shipments value had risen 6.3% from
1997, while value received had improved by 5.2% over the year. We are
forecasting 3.8% growth in 1998, following 1997's 12.1%. Annual growth
should continue, and the industry will be able to realize 3.5% in 1999.
Three-Month Moving
Average of Fab Groundbreakings (1995-1998) |
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Key points:
- New fab starts (new construction) fell to one of their lowest points ever in Q398.
- Crash in fab starts was in response to dismal Q2 semiconductor revenue and earnings growth.
- We expect new fab starts to increase in 1999.
- New fabs on-line will fall 20% this year.
- New fabs on-line will increase by 30% in 1999. These fabs are under construction, plus delayed fabs coming on-line.
- New fab construction increases, and new fabs on-line will push capital spending up in 1999 by 11%.
Strategic Marketing Associates is a market research company whose focus is on the fab. For information about capital spending and new fab projects, contact Strategic Marketing Associates at 831-464-2669.
