Electronic Industry Update
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 10/1/1998
| Worldwide Sales of Semiconductor Devices  Historical Data: WSTS Forecast: Cahners Economics |
Production Trends, Forecasts of Computers  Historical Data: Federal Reserve Board Forecast: Cahners Economics |
|
Production
Trends of |
Production Trends, Forecasts of Consumer Electronics  Historical Data: Federal Reserve Board Forecast: Cahners Economics |
S
emiconductor sales value increased 22.3% May-June, following May's 5.3% decline.
May-June 1997 sales rose 20.0%. The industry's ability to achieve seasonal
improvement gives reason to believe that at worst the industry is bouncing along
the bottom of this severe down cycle. Unit sales volume rose 8.1% May-June.
June's unit sales were 2.0% lower than June 1997. A total of 6.5% more
semiconductor devices were sold through June than through June 1997. Unit growth
in semiconductor sales will be slow. The average selling price of semiconductors
was 15.4% lower in June than June 1997. June's DRAM sales value was 49.3% behind
June 1997. Through June, DRAM sales values were down 34.7% from January-June
1997. June microprocessor sales were 10.5% below June 1997, and microprocessor
sales value faded 11.2%. Through June, the value of semiconductors sold to
Europe almost equaled sales through June 1997. Through June, sales to Europe
were off 0.3%, and sales to the Asia/Pacific region fell 4.2% below the total
through June 1997. Double-digit declines were recorded in sales to North America
(-11.5%) and Japan (-19.8%). 
| Fab Watch | |||||
| $Millions | |||||
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| Asia-Pacific | $5435 | $10,277 | $13,455 | $12,664 | $7942 |
| Europe | $2439 | $3030 | $4380 | $3982 | $3800 |
| Japan | $8962 | $12,722 | $12,063 | $10,543 | $7580 |
| North America | $8787 | $13,669 | $14,794 | $13,985 | $13,162 |
| Total | $25,624 | $39,698 | $44,692 | $41,174 | $32,484 |
| % Change | 49 | 55 | 13 | -8 | -21 |
| Source: Strategic Marketing Associates | |||||
Key points:
- Capital spending is extremely volatile.
- The ratio of semiconductor capital spending to revenues is above 25%.
- Spending levels will fall by at least 21% this year.
- Japanese and Asia-Pacific spending will fall 28% and 37% respectively this year.
- Japan's share of total spending has fallen from 35% in 1995 to 23% in 1998.
- Given a recovery in chip sales by the first quarter of 1999, capital expenditures will increase by 17% in 1999.
Strategic Marketing Associates is a market research company whose focus is on the fab. For information about capital spending and new fab projects, contact Strategic Marketing Associates at 831-464-2669.
