Electronics Industry Update
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 5/1/1998
The dollar value of worldwide semiconductor sales fell by 20% between December and January. The Asian crisis is having a significant impact on the dollar value of semiconductor sales, despite generally solid end-market demand. Average prices are falling because of currency devaluations in East Asia and global overcapacity in some key semiconductor product categories. January worldwide semiconductor sales were 0.6% higher than during the first month of 1997. This was the smallest over-the-year gain in monthly sales in nine months. Unit sales fell 10.4% between December and January, but January unit sales volume was still 10.9% ahead of January 1997. The average selling price of all semiconductors was 9.2% lower in January than in January 1997. The average price for discretes sold this January was 7.5% lower than a year earlier, while the average price for all IC devices (about 86% of the total semiconductor market) was down 14.8% over the year. The most significant problems continue to be in the memory market. DRAM sales rebounded nicely during mid-year 1997. Third-quarter 1997 sales values were up a sharp 20.4%. However, the market started to fall apart again in October, and by January, sales were running 14.2% behind their year-earlier level.
Semiconductor Device Sales Trends by Regional Market
| $Billions | % Change from a year earlier | |||||||
| Total | Projected | Total | Projected | |||||
| 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | |
| World | 131.97 | 137.20 | 142.74 | 172.20 | -8.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 20.6 |
| Americas | 42.68 | 45.85 | 50.40 | 58.38 | -9.2 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 15.8 |
| Japan | 34.18 | 32.08 | 29.43 | 35.58 | -13.8 | -6.1 | -8.3 | 20.9 |
| Europe | 27.56 | 29.09 | 32.46 | 38.28 | -2.3 | 5.5 | 11.6 | 17.9 |
| Asia/Pacific | 27.55 | 30.18 | 30.45 | 39.96 | -6.7 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 31.2 |
| ICs | 114.94 | 119.53 | 124.76 | 149.91 | -8.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 20.2 |
| Discretes | 17.03 | 17.67 | 17.98 | 22.29 | -7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 24.0 |
Historical Data: World Semiconductor Trade
Statistics
Forecast: Cahners Economics
Business Investment Trends & Forecasts for Key European Markets
(% Change from a year earlier,
total capital
spending)
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | |
| Germany | 4.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| France | -0.1 | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| United Kingdom | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Netherlands | 6.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Spain | 4.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
| Sweden | -4.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
Source: Consensus Economics Inc.