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Electronics Industry Update

Staff -- Semiconductor International, 5/1/1998

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The dollar value of worldwide semiconductor sales fell by 20% between December and January. The Asian crisis is having a significant impact on the dollar value of semiconductor sales, despite generally solid end-market demand. Average prices are falling because of currency devaluations in East Asia and global overcapacity in some key semiconductor product categories. January worldwide semiconductor sales were 0.6% higher than during the first month of 1997. This was the smallest over-the-year gain in monthly sales in nine months. Unit sales fell 10.4% between December and January, but January unit sales volume was still 10.9% ahead of January 1997. The average selling price of all semiconductors was 9.2% lower in January than in January 1997. The average price for discretes sold this January was 7.5% lower than a year earlier, while the average price for all IC devices (about 86% of the total semiconductor market) was down 14.8% over the year. The most significant problems continue to be in the memory market. DRAM sales rebounded nicely during mid-year 1997. Third-quarter 1997 sales values were up a sharp 20.4%. However, the market started to fall apart again in October, and by January, sales were running 14.2% behind their year-earlier level.

Semiconductor Device Sales Trends by Regional Market

$Billions % Change from a year earlier
  Total Projected Total Projected
  1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999
World 131.97 137.20 142.74 172.20 -8.6 4.0 4.0 20.6
Americas 42.68 45.85 50.40 58.38 -9.2 7.4 9.9 15.8
Japan 34.18 32.08 29.43 35.58 -13.8 -6.1 -8.3 20.9
Europe 27.56 29.09 32.46 38.28 -2.3 5.5 11.6 17.9
Asia/Pacific 27.55 30.18 30.45 39.96 -6.7 9.6 0.9 31.2
ICs 114.94 119.53 124.76 149.91 -8.8 4.0 4.4 20.2
Discretes 17.03 17.67 17.98 22.29 -7.2 4.0 1.8 24.0


Historical Data: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics
Forecast: Cahners Economics

Business Investment Trends & Forecasts for Key European Markets

(% Change from a year earlier,
total capital spending)

  1997 1998 1999
Germany 4.0 6.5 7.1
France -0.1 4.6 5.4
United Kingdom 2.7 4.2 3.0
Italy 0.5 4.7 5.1
Netherlands 6.0 4.1 3.8
Spain 4.7 7.1 7.0
Sweden -4.7 4.2 5.1

Source: Consensus Economics Inc.

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