Electronics Industry Update
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 3/1/1998
| Economic Indicator |
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| The trend in semiconductor sales turned positive -- on a 12-month
moving-total basis -- during November for the first time in 14
months. Preliminary indications are that sales growth (in dollar
terms) was about 5% during 1997, rebounding from the 8.6% loss
recorded during 1996. Sales to Japan were weakest last year, while
modest gains were registered in the North American and Western
European markets.
Sales to Asia (excluding Japan) held up well during 1997, with about a 9% gain following the previous year's sharp decline. However, year-over-year gains were clearly beginning to fade during the final quarter of last year. Forecasts of business investment gains during 1998 in Asia/Pacific markets have been revised sharply downward in recent months. For example, during late summer the consensus outlook was that total business investment in South Korea would grow by 5.6% this year; the latest forecasts show an average expected decline of 7.4% in capital spending by Korean companies during 1998. Forecasts for Indonesia and Thailand have also been sharply revised; only Taiwan's business investment gains are now expected to realize the growth predicted just a few months ago. |
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Semiconductor Device Sales Trends by Regional Market |
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$ Billions |
% Change from a year earlier. |
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| Total | Projected | Total | Projected | |||||
| 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | |
| World | 131.97 | 138.88 | 153.94 | 169.43 | -8.6 | 5.2 | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| Americas | 42.68 | 46.78 | 52.34 | 56.96 | -9.2 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 8.8 |
| Japan | 34.18 | 32.86 | 35.55 | 38.77 | -13.8 | -3.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 |
| Europe | 27.56 | 29.21 | 33.86 | 38.22 | -2.3 | 6.0 | 15.9 | 12.9 |
| Asia/Pacific | 27.55 | 30.03 | 32.19 | 35.48 | -6.7 | 9.07 | 7.2 | 10.2 |
| ICs | 114.94 | 121.44 | 134.56 | 140.40 | -8.8 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| Discretes | 17.03 | 17.44 | 19.38 | 20.03 | -7.27 | 2.5 | 11.1 | 3.4 |
| Historical Data: World Semiconductor Trade Stastistics | Forecast: Cahners Economics | |||||||
Business Investment Trends & Forecasts for Asia/Pacific |
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(% Change from a year earlier, total capital spending) |
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| 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| Japan | 9.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| China | 18.9 | 13.5 | 14.7 |
| South Korea | 7.1 | -2.3 | -7.4 |
| Taiwan | 2.4 | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| Hong Kong | 12.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 |
| India | 6.6 | 7.4 | 9.7 |
| Singapore | 16.1 | 9.6 | 6.4 |
| Thailand | 8.4 | -4.0 | -7.1 |
| Indonesia | 17.7 | 6.9 | 1.7 |
| Australia | 15.7 | 11.7 | 5.3 |
| Source: Consensus Economics Inc. | |||
