FSA Presents 1998 Wafer Demand Survey Results

Fig. 1. The number of fabless companies continues to increase. (Source: FSA) Wafer demand for 1999 is expected to increase approximately 754,000 150 mm wafer equivalent units, or 30%. Survey respondents also indicated that ~60% of their wafer needs wou -- Semiconductor International, 6/1/1998

The Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA, Dallas, Texas) presented the results of its 1998 Wafer Demand Survey in San Jose, Calif. The survey, carried out by an independent third party, elicited responses from 63 of 161 fabless companies questioned. Results indicate that while the number of fabless companies continues to increase (see figure), and there are still expectations of growth in the fabless industry, these have been moderated.

Actual 150 mm wafer equivalents received by fabless companies in 1997 were 92% of what the 1997 survey forecast and 95% of what was forecast based in a mid-1997 update. Actual wafer demand for all companies participating in the survey increased 19% from 1996 to 1997, with revenues rising 9% during the same period. The survey indicates an expectation of 45% growth in wafer needs over the current year, over actual 1997 wafers. Private companies expect these needs to increase 116%, while public companies estimate 35%. Eleven of the 63 participants comprised 79% of the forecast 45% growth. This growth in wafer needs compares to an expected revenue growth for these public companies in the low mid-teens for 1997 to 1998, implying that derived revenue per wafer will continue declining in 1998. Growth in 1998 is expected to be low, followed by a significant pick-up in the third and fourth quarters, of 22% and 16%, respectively, from the previous quarter.

Fig. 1. The number of fabless companies continues to increase. (Source: FSA)

Wafer demand for 1999 is expected to increase approximately 754,000 150 mm wafer equivalent units, or 30%. Survey respondents also indicated that ~60% of their wafer needs would be produced on 0.50 µm (500 nm) or less geometries. Companies anticipate their wafer needs in 1999 will be for linewidths of 0.35 µm (350 nm) or less. Geometries of 0.25 µm (250 nm) are expected to account for about 21% of the total demand. Companies using CMOS technologies expect increasingly complex geometry requirements, as well as more metal layers.

By 1999, more than 56% of the requirements for 0.35 µm geometries of the companies polled will be for processes with four or more metal layers, and 58% of those for 0.25 µm geometries will be for processes with five metal layers or more.