Japan Avoids 200 mm Wafer Shortage
Staff -- Semiconductor International, 4/1/1998
Sales of monocrystal Si are
expected to rise 7% to reach 4580 tons in FY98, representing a 5% increase in Japan's
demand to 2860 tons and a 10% increase in exports to 1720 tons. Export value is
expected to rise 10% to $10 million. The Silicon Group of the New Metals Association
announced data on high-purity silicon production and sale for FY97 and forecasts for FY98.
Sales of monocrystal Si in FY97 rose 5% over last year to 4285 tons, which was below the initial forecasts (10% rise to 4500 tons). The Silicon Group said it believes the causes were the following: inventory adjustments by IC manufacturers because of the tight poly-Si supply situation from the end of 1995 that was carried over into the first half of 1997; the slump in PC sales; and the continuing drop in DRAM prices. Sales for the first half (January-June) were down 9.8% from the same term of the prior year, while figures for the second half (July-December) were up 20.7%.
The forecast for the first half of FY98, reflecting uncertainties about the future economic climate and continuing production adjustments by semiconductor manufacturers, is stern. However, in the second half, demand is expected to surge primarily in 200 mm epitaxial wafers, supported by the faster Pentium II processor system bus (66-100 MHz) and a rise in PC demand driven by the release of the Windows 98 operating system by Microsoft.
The association also released data broken down by wafer size for January 1997 to November 1997. The data showed that 200 mm wafers rose from 33.0% (1996) of the world market to 39.4%, surpassing 150 mm wafers for the first time (39.8% down to 36.4%). The same situation also existed in Japan, with 200 mm wafers rising from 33.6% to 39.9%, surpassing 150 mm wafers (40.0% to 36.4%). The percentage of epitaxial wafers within 200 mm wafers rose from 14.2% to 19% worldwide and from 6.0% to 13.5% in Japan.
The feared shortage of 200 mm epitaxial wafers in the fall of 1997 was avoided thanks to boosted production capacity on the part of the Si makers and production adjustments by the semiconductor firms as DRAM prices fell. As Group Manager Kunimi Yoshimura pointed out, "Even if demand rises, most firms have already launched expansion programs, and there should be no undersupply situation for some time to come."
After the supply shortage of poly-Si at the end of 1995, investments into equipment in 1996 and 1997 led to a FY97 rise in production capacity of 31% over the prior year, to 5378 tons. As a result, inventory rose from one-and-a-half months at the end of 1996 to two months at the end of 1997. Considering the full-scale production stance now, the association expects a 2% rise to 5500 tons for 1998.
