Semiconductor Equipment Monitor
-- Semiconductor International, 6/1/2001
|
|
||
 |
|
The value of March 2001 semiconductor equipment shipments was pegged at $2.04B, while new orders during the month were estimated to be worth just $1.31B. Bookings have trailed shipments for the past four months, following 24 consecutive months in which new orders exceeded the value of semiconductor equipment being shipped from North American factories.
The March book-to-bill specifically for the test/assembly segment of the market plunged to a depressed reading of 0.60 after showing little change over the prior three months. The ratio for this segment of the market has been below the break-even point of 1.00 since last summer. Weakness in the front-end equipment segment also deepened during March. As recently as the final month of 2000, the book-to-bill ratio for front-end equipment showed orders exceeding shipments by 7%, but during March 2001 orders trailed shipments by 35%.
Overall orders to equipment manufacturers plummeted 22.6% between February and March, following a more modest 9.1% loss during the previous month. However, since there's still a fair amount of work in the pipeline because of the strong orders volume recorded during the second half of last year, the value of product shipments declined by a less dramatic 11.2% between February and March of this year.
Global equipment sales totals for the first two months of 2001 remained misleadingly strong -- at least given expectations for the next six to nine months. Global semiconductor equipment sales for the first two months of the year were valued at a level 32.0% greater than over January-February of 2000.
Equipment shipments to North American chipmakers during January and February of 2001 were valued at a level 50.1% above the total for the first two months of 2000. And shipments to Japan were up an even stronger 96.0%. Shipments of semiconductor equipment to Europe during the first two months of this year totaled $1.04B, almost 30% more than the cumulative total for January-February of 2000. But evidence of the deepening worldwide market weakness was apparent in the numbers for the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) region. After more than doubling between 1999 and 2000, semiconductor equipment sales to Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region during the first two months of 2001 came up 6.5% short of the total for January and February of last year.
And the Asia-Pacific downturn is undoubtedly just the tip of the iceberg; shipments to all regions of the world will fade quickly as we move through this year. Our preliminary forecasts for 2001 show all regions except Japan experiencing a decline in semiconductor equipment sales, with the Asian markets (the strongest growth areas during 2000 and 2001) recording the steepest drop. The global market should begin to show signs of recovery by the end of this year (although we believe that sales to Japan will be fading at that point), and growth -- albeit modest -- should return during 2002.
| Table 1. Equipment Sales Trends by Regional Market | ||||||||
| Billions of U.S. dollars | % Change from a year ago | |||||||
| Total | Projected | Actual | Projected | |||||
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| World | 25.50 | 47.68 | 45.66 | 47.91 | 16.2 | 87.0 | -4.2 | 5.0 |
| Americas | 7.45 | 12.93 | 13.10 | 13.44 | -2.2 | 73.5 | -8.6 | 2.6 |
| Japan | 5.52 | 9.18 | 10.13 | 9.13 | 17.3 | 66.2 | 10.3 | -9.9 |
| Europe | 3.24 | 6.44 | 6.28 | 6.60 | 11.4 | 99.1 | -2.6 | 5.2 |
| Asia/Pacific | 9.29 | 19.13 | 16.65 | 18.74 | 38.4 | 108.8 | -13.0 | 12.6 |
| Historical Data: SEMI | Forecast: Semiconductor International | |||||||
| Table 2. Price Trends (% Change in producer prices, June 1999-June 2000) | |
| All capital equipment for manufacturing | 0.6% |
| All semiconductor manufacturing equipment | 0.7 |
| Wafer processing equipment | 0.8 |
| Assembly and packaging equipment | 0.4 |
| Parts for semiconductor mfg. machinery | 0.0 |
| Source: U.S. Labor Department |
