Semico Research Sees Strong 2010 for Chip Industry
Semico Research is predicting 20% IC revenue growth next year, followed by two years of stable growth. Another downturn will follow in 2013, with revenues declining in the face of continued good unit growth that year. "We are now seeing a V-shaped recovery," Semico founder Jim Feldhan said in Austin, Texas, "and there are some pretty cool electronics products coming to the market."
David Lammers, News Editor -- Semiconductor International, 10/22/2009
The semiconductor industry may enjoy 20% revenue gains next year, with equipment suppliers looking at "a couple of good years," said Semico Research Inc. President Jim Feldhan on the second day of the ISMI Symposium in Austin, Texas.
In sharp contrast with an earlier speech by economist Angelos Angelou at the two-day conference, which took a darker view of the next five years, Feldhan said companies are telling him that their fourth quarters are looking good, and that even the seasonally weak first quarter may show surprising strength. "We are now seeing a V-shaped recovery, and there are some pretty cool electronics products coming to the market," Feldhan said.
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Semico Research sees broadband wireless and social networking as drivers of IC consumption. |
Netbook and tablet computers, solar smart meters, color e-paper readers, small projection displays, health monitoring devices, automotive anti-collision and adaptive cruise-control systems, and other consumer items will complement the strong growth expected in broadband wireless devices.
Semico Research is predicting another downturn in 2013, with revenues declining in the face of continued good unit growth. By then, 15 nm technology will be emerging, with older linewidths maintaining strength as 32 and 45 nm technologies have the largest share of foundry revenues.
Feldhan said that by 2012, the combination of GlobalFoundries (Sunnyvale, Calif.) with the other Common Platform foundry partners — IBM and Samsung Electronics — will slightly exceed TSMC's sales. GlobalFoundries is backed by patient investors, and the acquisition of Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. (Singapore) provides GlobalFoundries with an Asian manufacturing base, an established shuttle service, and 150 customers, he said.
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