PV Analyst Warns of Marooned Megawatts
A photovoltaics symposium held by IEEE and Applied Materials showcased the technology's potential, but was tempered by demand considerations in light of the current world economic situation. Paula Mints, a solar analyst at Navigant Consulting, warned that companies could face weak demand and "marooned" capacity as solar incentives are scaled back.
Alexander E. Braun, Senior Editor -- Semiconductor International, 10/6/2008
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The demand for photovoltaics is in a precarious situation, with subsidies waning in Europe and a shaky world economy threatening an oversupply of solar panels, according to a speaker at the 2008 IEEE Santa Clara Valley Electron Devices Society/Applied Materials Technology Symposium.
Paula Mints, principal analyst for Navigant Consulting’s (Palo Alto, Calif.) PV services program, said PV support is shaky in the European Union. In Spain, a new cap on solar electric installations of 300 MWp in 2009 could maroon more than a gigawatt worth of product. “Other than Germany, which has implemented market controls, there’s nowhere else for these stranded megawatts to go,” she said.
In the United States, incentives remain weak in what is essentially a one-state market: California. However, even there, government incentives are necessary to fuel the willingness to deploy what remains a costly technology. Unless solar tax credits change the disparity in electricity generation costs, Mints said, “there is no demand pull in PV.”
Regardless of the interest in the technology, without government motivation, progress will be slow, Mints concluded. She said it is risky to assume that the global market will absorb excess product, particularly in view of the global economic situation, the housing slump in the United States and Japan, the need for incentives to maintain demand, and the availability of substitutes such as more efficient energy use. She viewed grid parity as only leveling the playing field, and until then it needs incentives to thrive. “Manufacturing costs must decline and efficiencies must rise,” Mints said, adding, “The U.S. has few, if any, manufacturing incentives to lower production costs, and Europe is over 70% of the market for solar products.”
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| A 10-year aggregate forecast shows that the industry has enjoyed an accelerated growth for some time. This should continue for the next five years. Even when accelerated growth ends, the momentum toward the use of renewable technologies will continue. (Source: Navigant Consulting) |
In 1997, the United States had a 42% share of shipments, but by 1998 this declined to 38%, and by last year it was down to 8%. “In the U.S. states, where the price of conventional electricity is at or above the price of PV-generated electricity (as in Hawaii) and where there are no incentives, there is no market.”
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| Asia is now the low-cost manufacturing region. Soon the rest of the world will take over. (Source: Navigant Consulting) |
Mark Pinto, senior vice president of energy and environmental solutions at Applied Materials Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.), described the cost-effectiveness of gigawatt-class factories that Applied is working on, saying that one of them “will consume 500 tons of glass a day.”
The factory’s area is the same as that of Disney’s Magic Kingdom in Orlando, Fla., and it will produce enough solar panels daily to cover seven-and-a-half football fields. The building of these gigawatt factories provides a 20% cost reduction, with further savings coming from replicating the infrastructure and using the same labor force. “These savings make a difference when you are in the inflection zone,” he said.
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| Grid parity marks the much awaited inflection zone for the PV market. Depending on fossil fuel costs and the world economy, it could arrive sooner than expected. (Source: Applied Materials) |
Professor Tim Anderson of the University of Florida (Gainesville, Fla.) recommended that new PV concepts be researched in organic and hybrid organic/inorganic conversion systems, petroelectrochemical solar cells, novel nanoscale and self-assembled materials, and theory, modeling and simulation. “New theoretical, modeling and computational tools are required to guide and interpret, experiment and assist in the design of molecules, materials and systems,” he said, adding that improved theory and methods are needed to understand electron transfer and charge separation, excited states, their properties and potential energy surfaces.
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| There is an abundance of technologies that can further PV development. (Source: University of Florida) |
“We need enhanced capabilities to accurately predict bandgaps, lifetimes and band offsets in materials that are realistic candidates for solar energy systems,” he said, adding that research should be carried out with nano-structured architectures that can efficiently absorb the full spectrum of wavelengths in solar radiation, multiple exciton generation, and structures that are defect-tolerant and self-repairing.
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Azmat - 10/6/2008 3:27:00 PM CDT -
Nice. (sarcasm implied) An industry that depends on taxpayer subsidies to survive. Since this...
Jonathan Williams - 10/6/2008 2:48:00 PM CDT -
Hey Everyone,Don't forget about the BIG WHITE ELEPHANT in the room. It's the lack of cheap...
Daryl Hanson - 10/6/2008 12:35:00 PM CDT
